经济 | 股市走在经济前头

在此小小分享前几天所读的市场周期资料。

The diagram shows the life cycle of an asset bubble. • Easy monetary policy leads to a stronger economy as lower interest rates stimulate spending. • When investors became more optimistic, their optimism leads to speculation which spurs asset bubbles. • As the inflation rate builds up, central banks respond by tightening monetary policy. • Consequently, the economy starts to slow down, prompting central banks to adopt easy monetary policies. Thus, the cycle begins anew.

以下图指出资产/经济泡沫的周期。

- Easy money /宽松政策或低利率会刺激消费。当投资者越来越乐观，就会进而投机带动经济泡沫。
-一旦通货膨胀，政府银行实行金钱/货币政策，经济又会降温，然后政府银行有实行宽松政策。周而复始。

Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009 In response to the GFC, policy makers applied massive fiscal and monetary stimulus policies (demand-side policies) to prevent the global recession from turning into a depression. The 3 key policy tools used were: i. Cutting interest rates to near zero ii. Fiscal spending iii. Quantitative easing

Outcome: The global economy recovered from the -0.4% recession of 2009 with GDP growth averaging 3.5% in the 2011-2014 period compared to the 20-year average of 3.8% (1988-2007). The recovery was led by the U.S. economy which contracted by -2.8% in 2009 before growing at 2.1% in 2011-2014 (20 year average: 3.1%) The U.S. economy has recovered the 8.7 mil jobs lost in the GFC, but the mix of jobs favours the lower-wage workers.

其实2008-2009年的经济风暴，国际采取货币/财政政策阻止经济不景气进一步下滑至萧条。结果成功了。。

1.       Much like economic cycles, stock market cycles have expansion (bull) and contraction (bear) periods. 2. Stock market cycles are driven by: (a) investor expectations of corporate earnings (b) macroeconomic trends affecting the revenues of companies & (c) investor sentiment.

Stock markets generally move ahead of economic cycles. But earnings expectations and sentiment can also affect share prices. 4. Changes in investor sentiment can affect stock market cycles. Extreme swings in sentiment cause bull and bear markets.

股市也和经济一样有牛和熊市。可惜股市是走在经济前头，所以很难在经济萧条前预测熊市的到来。。

当然股市也受以下的影响
1)公司的表现 2）大环境 3）投资者的情绪。

The current global economic cycle is led by the gradual recovery of the developed nations (U.S., Europe and Japan).  The global stock market cycle is currently in an extended bull phase which can be sustained for a few more years if policymakers manage well the transition from the low interest rate conditions to a higher interest rate environment.

目前国际股市是在牛市的延长阶段。。如果当局能够处理好转换利息的过渡期，牛市就可能再延续多几年。。 （天啊，什么时候会倒 @@）

However, market cycles among different regions can be volatile and unpredictable, especially in an environment where the U.S. Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are easing. 

但是，没有100%，准备好自己才是王道。。